The NBA Trade Deadline passed on Thursday afternoon with the Portland Trail Blazers standing pat. It doesn’t mean discussions weren’t had but apparently there was nothing that made the Blazers front office’s socks go up and down.
After the deadline, General Manager Joe Cronin explained his rationale to reporters and added that he wasn’t against the still intact Blazers aiming for the Play-In.
I think it would be unfair to take it away from them. For me, I’m so proud and so excited about these guys that the sky is the limit. Go guys, go win, let’s see what you can do and I’m here to support it.
On cursory evaluation, it might make sense for the surging Blazers, sitting 13th in the Western Conference, to look up the standings after winning 10 of their past 11 games. They hold a 23-29 record, currently 2.5 games out of 10th spot and the last Play-In spot with the 10th toughest schedule ahead of them.
They look cohesive, getting positive contributions from Toumani Camara, Deni Avdija, Deandre Ayton, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson and Jerami Grant.
Ahead of them are the Phoenix Suns at 26-25, Sacramento Kings at 25-26, Golden State Warriors at 25-26 and San Antonio Spurs at 22-27. Right now, the thought of leapfrogging three of these teams doesn’t sound all that ridiculous.
It’s a tantalizing proposition for a franchise that has missed the NBA Playoffs the past three seasons, thanks largely to relatively blatant tanking by Cronin and his front office. During this process, veterans have missed swathes of games in March and April with unexpected injuries, precipitating the Blazers’ fall down the Western Conference standings.
It might be an unpopular opinion but Cronin needs to re-implement said strategy for a fourth straight year. Here’s why.
Staying In The Draft
The 2025 NBA Draft class is expected to be the polar opposite of the 2024 group, potentially packed with franchise-changing talent. The group is, of course, headlined by Duke’s Cooper Flagg and Rutger’s pair Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey.
Beyond the trio there’s Egor Demin, Tre Johnson, Kasparas Jakucionis and VJ Edgecombe who are expected to contribute to winning for their future teams. For the Blazers to even be in contention for these players, they need to miss the NBA Playoffs with their first round pick owed to the Chicago Bulls if it’s 15th or lower.
But let’s be clear, the focus should be Flagg, Harper and Bailey, which means the Blazers need to ensure they lose the majority of the next 30 games.
Why? Because they still don’t have their franchise player. Sharpe is likely the Blazers’ best chance at an All Star appearance, but whether he changes the franchise’s fortunes single-handedly remains to be seen.
Unless an unlikely trade materializes, the draft is the Blazers’ best chance at a difference maker and this class might be their best opportunity. While they’ve likely already won too many games to have the top five best odds, they need to try for the sixth best odds, which still gives them a 27.6 percent chance at a top three pick.
For comparison, the teams with the 12th, 13th and 14th worst records all have a less than 3.5 percent chance at a top three pick. For a team in need of a game changer, the prudent path would be to sacrifice two months of basketball in the hope of securing a game-changer that grows with this young core.
The Blazers made a conscious effort to tank over the past three seasons. Prematurely ending that process before they secure a key member of the next run seems ludicrous.
A Winning Culture Is Nice But We’ve Seen This Movie Before
I’ve seen the “winning culture” sentiment expressed across various forums. I get it but it won’t help the team in the long run. This current roster has a pretty obvious, and not ridiculously high, ceiling. Skipping the opportunity to add to the current group with potentially franchise-changing talent would be detrimental to the future of this franchise.
While there are more differences than similarities between this year’s squad and the 2015-16 iteration of the Blazers, I can’t help but flash back. In the first year of a rebuild, the 2015-16 squad overachieved and made it all the way to the second round of the NBA Playoffs.
That Neil Olshey-managed Blazers team subsequently fast-tracked the rest of the rebuild forgoing another two or three high draft picks, resulting in Damian Lillard never contending. Yes, the 2019 run was fun but that team was never going to beat the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals, even with a healthy Jusuf Nurkic.
Ironically, the current team might have the supporting cast Lillard needed. Unfortunately it’s missing the Lillard-like star it needs to make a difference. The consequent ceiling is likely mid-40s wins before competitively losing a first round series. It’s not awful but it’s not contending for a title and surely that’s what the franchise should be hoping for.
What It Means
The Blazers let Thursday’s NBA Trade Deadline pass without making a move. Whether or not deals were discussed in anger is now irrelevant.
The franchise’s path to contention has to run via the top of the 2025 NBA Draft and the overwhelming talent it teases. For me, there’s no more viable way, other than lucking out with the 2028-2030 Milwaukee Bucks pick and swaps, which are still three and a half years away.
While the past few weeks have been fun and a great snapshot of the talent currently on the roster, skipping steps lowers the Blazers’ ceiling. Finishing 10th sends the Blazers on the road for a knock-out Play-In game. A momentary thrill but a much harder road to sustainable success.
Sitting veterans and key rotation players might not be fun but two more months of pain might be the necessary sacrifice that delivers real success.
