After a quiet few days for the bubble, Saturday gives us thirteen bubble games including two “double bubble” games. And, since the SEC is dominating everything in college basketball this season, it’s only appropriate that five of Saturday’s bubble games involve SEC teams.
The record for the most teams from one conference in the NCAA Tournament is 11, set by the Big East in 2011. That was back when the Big East was a 16-team league. The SEC is going to threaten that record and its ability to match or break it will depend on how these bubble teams finish the season.
I have yet to do a bracket with fewer than 12 SEC teams in it. The most recent one has 13, although the one before it had 14. I don’t think 13 or 14 is sustainable because there are still so many games left and it is likely that one or two of these teams will not be up to the task. I think it is much more likely that the final number of SEC teams in the field will be closer to 11 than 14. It would be surprising at this point if the league did not at least match that 2011 Big East record.
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Saturday’s ‘double bubble’ games
West Virginia at Baylor
2 p.m. (ESPN2)
After losing five of its last seven games, West Virginia is new to the bubble. The Mountaineers have been playing without star Tucker DeVries, who is out for the season with a shoulder injury. They have a relatively favorable schedule, but need to start stringing together wins.
Baylor has a relatively favorable schedule left as well. The Bears get Arizona and Houston at home, but have no other games left against teams in the bracket after Saturday. A 5-2 finish would give them some comfort entering the Big 12 tournament.
Wake Forest at SMU
6 p.m. (ACC Network)
Another “double bubble” game, but it’s bigger for SMU. The Mustangs have a good record, but are lacking in higher quality wins. Their win over Pittsburgh on Tuesday is their best of the season so far and their only one over a team anywhere near the bracket. The Demon Deacons would replace Pitt as SMU’s best win if the Mustangs pull it off.
Wake Forest saw its three-game winning streak snapped at home to Florida State on Wednesday. That is the Demon Deacons’ first bad loss of the season and they cannot afford any more. Their win over Michigan in the first week of the season is their only Quad 1 win so far. A win over SMU would be their second.
Other bubble teams in action Saturday
Arkansas
at Texas A&M, Noon (ESPN)
The Razorbacks have won three out of four to put themselves in this position. Two of those wins were at Kentucky and Texas. This is the first of four out of six on the road as Arkansas faces a challenging schedule at the end. Arkansas will have to continue to be road warriors if it hopes to make the NCAA Tournament.
Vanderbilt
at Tennessee, 1 p.m. (SEC Network)
Vanderbilt is new to the bubble after losing four of its last six games. The Commodores’ remaining schedule is daunting as well with three of their next four on the road, all against teams in the top 16 of Thursday’s bracket. They have been good on their home floor, but may need to get one of these road wins to stay in the bracket.
Georgia
vs. Missouri, 3:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
Georgia has lost seven out of its last nine games and is in danger of falling out of reach of the bracket. This is the third, and most winnable, of five-straight games against teams in the top 25 of the bracket. It gets hard to see a realistic path to the bracket if Georgia comes up short vs the Tigers.
Cincinnati
at Iowa State, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
The Bearcats have won three in a row to get on the bubble. Staying there will be a challenge. Cincinnati is a team that needs some higher quality wins and will have a few chances to get some. This is not the toughest of those chances because there is a trip to Houston in their future as well.
Oklahoma
vs. LSU, 6 p.m. (SEC Network)
The Sooners have lost four of their last five to land themselves on the bubble. This game is their last one against a noncontender in the SEC and they only have one game left against a fellow bubble team. Taking care of business on the home floor will be important for Oklahoma.
Texas
vs. Kentucky, 8 p.m. (ESPN)
The Longhorns’ tournament hopes are fading fast. Texas has lost four of its last five and is now three games below .500 against the top three quadrants. No team has made the tournament with that ugly stat on its resume. The Longhorns will have to finish 4-2 to get back to one game below .500 against Quads 1-3 entering the SEC Tournament.
BYU
vs. Kansas State, 9 p.m. (ESPN+)
BYU is the bubble team here, but Kansas State has gotten hot at a good time. The Cougars took a rough loss at Cincinnati last weekend but bounced back with a win over rival Utah. BYU needs some better wins still and this would not be one of those. In the meantime, the Cougars need to beat the teams they should beat.
San Diego State
vs. Boise State, 10 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
The Aztecs have a couple of very good wins over Houston and Creighton, but those are the only ones in the first two quadrants that will likely make the field. They have a road trip to Utah State coming up and get New Mexico at home. The other games are “must win.”
Gonzaga
vs. Pepperdine, 10 p.m. (ESPN+)
Gonzaga is another team where their average scoring margin metrics are much better than its actual resume. The Zags have wins over Baylor, San Diego State and Indiana, but those are three of the last six teams in my bracket. They will get Saint Mary’s next weekend. Gonzaga needs to beat everyone else
San Francisco
at San Diego, 10 p.m. (ESPN+)
The Dons got on the bubble by beating Saint Mary’s and almost gave it away at LMU. San Francisco may need to win all the way out, but for sure until the Dons host Gonzaga in the regular-season finale.
Saint Mary’s
vs. Washington State, 10 p.m. (ESPN2)
The Gaels are a couple of wins from probably getting off the bubble. The danger for them is other than Gonzaga, any loss would be pretty damaging. The Cougars are good enough to be dangerous except when they play Pacific. They will be fired up for this one.
Teams near the cut line
NCAA Tournament locks
Locks based on resume: 3 | Automatic bids secured: 0
Note – all references to NCAA Tournament selection records and trends based on NET rankings excludes the 2021 tournament. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of non-conference games, those rankings are not reliable enough to be considered.
